Didn't you just love it?
You vote in the first round of elections, then you have another go a week later. You have a chance to see what might be and then decide: eek no thanks - I'll go for something else.
If only we had the same luxury with our decision-making.
In other words, if only we could see how our decision plays out, and then have a second go.
We can't of course, but is there a next best thing? Sort of.
We've run several sessions recently on making decisions and the research is pretty interesting. Good decision-makers don't rely on experts: their predictions are often wrong. And the good decision-makers also keep a close eye on their biases.
Key attributes of good decision-makers seem to be they:
used probabilities (think clinical trials)
drew information from a variety of sources
owned up to mistakes and then took different approaches
worked with teams
questioned and had doubts
were continuously curious.
Sounds good to me. And it's practical to set up decision-making scenarios that include these behaviours.
A good example of this is President Obama's decision to authorise the raid by the Navy Seals to kill Osama Bin Laden. Obama displayed all these attributes, and also slept on the decision before rushing in. (Another good tip.)
And the probability that the target would be where he was claimed to be? 40 - 50%. Sometimes you have to take a risk.
Unlike the French electoral system, you don't get a second go.